Quick In; quick out: a search for U.S. hegemony

The Great Game Mural tells the story of the
perennial search for hegemony

"Back Baby, Back in Time"

Gen. Roberts' forces watch Afghan retreat

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It is reassuring that President Obama chooses to follow at least in part the advice of Lord Frederick Roberts, who commanded Britain's successful 1880's Afghan campaign.

Quick in and quick out was the Roberts strategy.

No "nation building," no direct rule. Negotiate and rule indirectly was the path forward.

Yet so far, despite Obama's emphasis on early withdrawal, we see an ultra-muscular "forward strategy."

The new policy includes both a troop increase and an escalation of goals.

It seems increasingly clear that the U.S. becomes a more vigorous player in a new version of the classic Central Asian form of politics known as The Great Game.

The aim: to build American hegemony in Afghanistan -- as a precondition for troop withdrawal.

Stabilization under American leadership of the broader region, including Pakistan with its nuclear weapons, appears to be the objective.

A remaking of Pakistani politics in a more pro-American direction is part of the goal.

The new strategy has both offensive and defensive aspects -- to dominate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan as well as to weaken, destroy al-Qaeda.

In many ways the Obama approach is far more aggressive than that of former President George Bush.

Stepped up drone attacks in Pakistan, stepped up pressure on Pakistan to join forces with the U.S. against the Taliban -- all are hallmarks of a renewed "forward strategy."

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The strategy of "quick in, quick out" worked well for Gen. Roberts in those days "way back in time."

But the world was much simpler then.

Roberts withdrew in part because William Gladstone succeeded the aggressively imperialist Benjamin Disraeli as Britain's prime minister.

Roberts seemed adept at adapting to the anti-imperialist Gladstone.

Lord Roberts' memoirs on the internet give a most graphic description of the battle against Afghan resistance.




The Brits firmly controlled what is today an independent Pakistan only partly allied with the Americans.

Today's Pakistan is sometimes a sanctuary for the Taliban and al Qaeda -- and itself vulnerable to militant attack -- especially if American pressure destabilizes it.

It is hard to be optimistic.

Still let us hope that what worked in the past will work once again.

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Much will depend on how Obama interprets the "advice" of Lord Roberts.

To what extent will he restrict the areas of occupation and nation building during the surge?

To what extent will the U.S. rely on more mobile attacks not requiring long term occupation?

These critical questions have so far been left, at least publicly, unanswered.

The way they are addressed will heavily impact the feasibility of a rapid exit.

"The devil is in the details."

For the moment the Obama strategy is agressive and far reaching -- showing an extraordinary willingness to up the ante, to take the risks.

Sir Frederick Roberts, 1832-1914

On his 82nd birthday

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In Afghanistan it's time for the "God of War" to create his own fresh harmonies.

Once combatants are fully joined, blood must be shed to establish either a clear victory or a new balance of forces.

There is no substitute for killing.

How to follow Lord Roberts' advice
WITHOUT following in Soviet footsteps?

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Back in September it became apparent President Obama would "need" to escalate in Afghanistan.

I decided to dedicate the next few months to research and writing on that Central Asian land -- including the options available to the President.

I pledged to myself to cease "reporting and writing" -- once the President announced his new strategy.

At first favoring withdrawal, I gradually concluded some kind of limited surge followed by some kind of rapid withdrawal was necessary -- but that chances of success in combining these two ingredients were marginal.

I support what the President seeks to do -- but am pessimistic about the prospects for success.

(For a quick, incomplete, no doubt carefully spun account of how President Obama reached his decision, try The New York Times, December 5, 2009.)

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Back in September I decided to do once again what I had done in the days of yore -- back in 1978 when China's Deng Xiaoping planned to enlist American support to invade Vietnam.

For three months I did my best to penetrate Chinese thinking to profile the coming escalation of a border war.

Then retreated to the sidelines after exhaustion and breakdown in Beijing.

To watch and report from a distance the 29 day February, 1979 war in which up to 40,000 Chinese and Vietnamese died.

Deng Xiaoping: invasion was in his mind

It was an avocation I began in the mid 1950's when studying Sidney Bradshaw Fay's "Origin of the World War" (1928).

That famous groundbreaking diplomatic history which punctured holes in the wartime propaganda that the cause of World War I was as simple as German militarism.

I have long been fascinated by a common theme of diplomats, politicians, and journalists making often blind decisions from inadequate or misinterpreted information.

War is very often deliberate and calculated, but often grows in a sea of "fog" -- where terrain, armies, intentions, consequences are deeply obscured.

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It is now time to "Exit Stage Left" -- from the tiny moving platform of my blog.

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One other thing: as war unfolds, media becomes even more a player and a tool of politicians and vested interests.

If judge you must, wait for the verdict of historians such as Sidney Bradshaw Fay...

Be patient.




Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria Hungary and his wife Countess Sophie shortly before their assassination in Sarajevo, Bosnia, June 28, 1914.

The killings sparked World War I.

Not to worry.

Americans have been fighting small wars which did not become world wars for two hundred years.

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"Back Baby, Back in Time," this time
by the "Punch Brothers"

Standing on the corner with a nickel or a dime
There use to be a rail car to take you down the line
Too much beer and whiskey to ever be employed

And when I got to Nashville, it was too much soldiers joy
Wasted on the wayside, wasted on the way
If I don’t go tomorrow, you know I’m gone today

Back babe, back in time
I wanna go back when you were mine
Back babe, back in time
I wanna go back when you were mine

Black highway all night ride
Watching the times fall away to the side
Clear channel way down low
Is comin’ in loud and my mind let go

Peaches in the summertime, apples in the fall
If I can’t have you all the time, I won’t have none at all
Oh, I wish I was in Frisco in a brand new pair of shoes
I’m sittin’ here in Nashville with Norman’s Nashville blues
So come all you good time rounders listenin’ to my sound
And then drink a round to Nashville for they tear it down

Hard weather, drivin’ slow
Buggies and the hats in town for the show
Oh darlin, the songs they played
All I got left of lovin’ me

Back babe, back in time
I wanna go back when you were mine
Back babe, back in time
I wanna go back when you were mine

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Need a Job: Why Not Try Afghanistan?
Obama's Battle Plan: Step Carefully Amidst Craters
When The Crater Meets Afghanistan
Obama's War: to Lift the Fog or Tap the Passions
The way Ahead: Does Obama Need a Bit of Clint Eastwood
We Are All Soldiers: Honoring the Miracle of Survival
Obama's Sophie's Choice: a Blind Media
"Tipping Point:" guns or doctors? China watches
What Will We See When the "Fog of War" Clears?
Obama's New Policy: Senator Kerry's Speech
Obama's Great Grim Gamble: He Holds a Weak Hand
A Digital View of Afghanistan: Obama and a Hybrid Strategy
Rudyard Kipling Warns President Obama
Will Obama Follow Lord Roberts Advice: Get in Fast, Withdraw
Pick off an Occupying Army: Updating an Old Story
Following Alexander the Great to Afghanistan
Should Prez Obama Take Advice From a Russian
Left, Right, Join In: Ring the Bell on "Obama's War"
US in Afghanistan: Bearing Gifts to Other Nations
America, China: Circling the Afghan Carcass
"The Kiterunner" as a Guide to Afghanistan