China and the U.S.
They are no longer opposites on two sides of a bamboo curtain.
They share many similarities and challenges, although their cultures and ideologies are vastly different.
Now they hold hands a bit, as happy partners -- while on the darker side nuclear powers circle in a "game" around the dead carcass of an Afghanistan devastated by thirty years of war.
A "game" that can both suck in and spill over.
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Bridging the nations: a Chinese Walmart
China and the U.S. Both come from extremely moralistic traditions. Both are culturally somewhat insular.
A major difference is that the US has been able to protect itself from the devastation of war fought on its own soil.
The only real traumatic, major incidence of war on U.S. home soil was the Civil War of 1861 to 1865.
China still recovers from the trauma of more than a century of bitter, violent war, both invasion and civil war. Where millions and millions have died, been uprooted, exiled, humbled into unpredictable positions in unpredictable times.
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Dancing in new times:
Another great difference is that China comes from the longest of histories. The US from the shortest. This impacts both in myriad indescribable ways.
China now has numerous challenges in its border regions, problems of possible separatism. How to balance the restiveness of more "backward" minorities such as Islamic Uighur and Buddhist Tibetan with the superiority claims of the Han?
The US lacks a separatist problem, but it is in the midst of a racial backlash after electing its first Afro-American president.
Once Obama made clear he would not merely be a smiling figurehead, the fear of a Black man in power has returned, echoing the deep insecurities the South felt after the Civil War --- when northern armies put blacks in charge of government.
This internal conflict, vast ideological polarization, fear and paranoia have important implications for America's interaction with the outside world.
The two countries have in common a growing polarization between poor and wealthy, a decline of meaningful guidance and regulation by government.
Both have highly unreliable social safety nets -- and sometimes dysfunctional political systems.
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In both countries localism, vested interest, bureaucracy and "bribery" sometimes make it difficult to enforce national policies, even where there is agreement on national policies.
Where America suffers in relation to China is its vast debt, its tendency toward bankruptcy at all levels of both private and public economy, its massive borrowing and trade deficit.
The mortgaging of future to dependence on consumer profligacy to keep the American economy going. With little left for renewal of a crumbling infrastructure.
A mixed blessing for China is its dependence on America's hunger for Chinese exports. And its dependence on interest income on American national debt.
The U.S. is an increasingly fragile nation which can put China at risk.
By emerging as number one, targeted by Al Qaeda, the United States feels compelled to continue the vast military expenditures which guarantee that funds will go into external occupation -- rather than renewal of American infrastructure.
China is freer to focus on building internal strength.
Being number one for the U.S. means, perhaps, there is little place to go but down.
China, by contrast, steers clear of moralistic expensive crusades, limits its military expenditures, keeps its belt a little tight as it gears for the future.
As the new guy on the block -- it can bypass many American problems.
Unless it crumbles under the weight of population, pollution, resource scarcity, polarized social classes, and/or political chaos, upheaval, fragmentation. How can it keep its many kinds of peoples and provinces in line?
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Now for the Afghan carcass:
Over all this hangs the deepening swamp of Afghanistan, where America, Europe, Pakistan, India, China, and Russia, Iran, just to name a few, now are involved in a an increasingly violent "game."
A game that can both suck in and spill over.
China may be an American junior partner in Afghanistan, extending some economic aid -- while avoiding direct commitments.
Pakistan refrains from backing Islamic separatists in Xinjiang so long as China does not get too close to India.
China cozies up to Pakistan to limit its support for those who might stir up Islamic separatism in China.
because of China and Russia, February 2009
China plays ball a bit with the US in Afghanistan hoping the US will tone down its human rights positions and its military backing for Taiwan.
Pakistan bends to Washington a bit to restrain Washington's support for India, but its intelligence agencies sometimes support the Taliban in Afghanistan to keep India from getting a toe hold there.
A very complicated world -- and one in which the Chinese can have a bright future.
But both China and the US walk tight ropes of potential internal political instability ---and a possible international tinderbox involving many countries with nuclear weapons.
A tinderbox which takes great care -- lest it drain the coffers of numerous nations.
India, Pakistan, the US, China, Iran, Russia --- all nuclear (or soon to be) powers circling on the dead carcass of a devastated Afghanistan.
How will this all impact the great international dance? Can regional and great power involvement be limited? Or will this Afghan abyss spiral upward and onward and outward as a defining morass for a host of nations?
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