"WAR IS THE GREATEST GAMBLE OF ALL"
LXXI
The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,Moves on: nor all your Piety nor WitShall lure it back to cancel half a Line,Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it.
-The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam
Eleven days after this was written, the writer altered his conclusions to favor a limited military surge to provide greater security for population centers, provide stable base areas for the war with Al Qaeda and increase the US ability to strike deals with elements of the Taliban.
Critical issues, in his view, are size and length of surge, how wide a geographic area would be occupied and avoidance of mission creep into nation building.
Why the change?
Research and reflection. And a changed moral stance toward war.
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NOW IS THE TIME TO ACT
At the moment when fateful decisions are being made.
Decisions to escalate "Obama's War" In the wild terrain of Afghanistan, the "graveyard of empires."
Decisions to send more troops, to widen their areas of operation, to commit untold resources to political and economic "nation-building."
This is no time to mourn for deaths already done.
To be quiet now could be complicity in hundreds, even thousands of deaths to come.
When there could be so many more to come.
Even though President Obama has so far shown restraint in dealing with requests for U.S. troop increases.
Even though President Obama has so far shown restraint in dealing with requests for U.S. troop increases.
The August 30, 2009 report by his top U.S. and Nato commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal makes this clear.
To be quiet now could be complicity in hundreds, even thousands of deaths to come.
And risk the economic viability of this country for decades to come.
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It is well to keep perspective on the impact of prolonged war on the American economy and society.
War can become a kind of "social safety net."
It is the ultimate "stimulus package."
We can expect that the U.S. policy of extended war may provide solid military jobs for the less privileged.
Benefits for many who are squeezed by outsourcing of jobs, decline of manufacturing, an unreliable health care delivery system, and an often unaffordable higher education system.
Among the benefits:
Job security, "relatively few" combat deaths, generally good health care, affordable on or off-base housing, expense paid transfer, solid pensions after relatively short careers, and constantly improving treatment for war wounds and post traumatic stress disorder.
Corporations supplying the military also benefit -- both at the highest levels and for all those they employ.
We as a nation do reap important benefits from growing bloodshed in Afghanistan.
We should remember that the U.S. Great Depression was not truly ended until World War II stimulated the American economy and brought fuller employment.
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Still the U.S. policy of extended war drains its economy, blocks renewal of American infrastructure -- and contributes to the specter of huge, unmanageable government debt ahead.
Cuts (or decrease in the rate of growth) in many services may be necessary to support the people and activities employed by the military, funded by overseas American wars.
Employment and social services would increasingly delivered by the military sector -- rather than by the civilian sector of government funded activities.
So "roll the dice" again.
Decide what is most important to you.
If you wish to contain the risks, to avoid further "militarization" of the U.S. economy, take up the burden to oppose possible escalation by President Obama -- even if he is "your man."
If you wish to contain the risks, to avoid further "militarization" of the U.S. economy, take up the burden to oppose possible escalation by President Obama -- even if he is "your man."
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Now is the time to act.
Even though the nation is preoccupied with healthcare reform issues.
Even though Obama supporters may be reluctant to say or do anything implying criticism of the President.
Even though the raucous incivility of today's ideological polarization may build reluctance to produce another controversy.
Both liberals and conservatives "must" join in, speak out, write letters, even organize demonstrations.
Both liberals and conservatives "must" join in, speak out, write letters, even organize demonstrations.
Congressional hearings may help.
But they may not be enough to push media into sustained coverage and serious, non-ideological discussion.
But they may not be enough to push media into sustained coverage and serious, non-ideological discussion.
The "heat" must be kept on the President.
We can expect media to emerge as much a part of the problem -- as of the solution.
We can expect media to emerge as much a part of the problem -- as of the solution.
It will be a difficult challenge to spread understanding of the range of choices ahead -- given the screaming and polarization of politicians and media in today's America.
Growing opposition to the war could sharpen the divide.
And make it difficult to find constructive solutions.
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We can hope -- but we cannot assume that an inexperienced Obama will make wise choices.
He has a range of options ranging from a full fledged counterinsurgency, nation-building strategy to a holding posture, with minor beef ups of military deployment while leaving open an option for some kind of deal.
We cannot assume that he will not try to appear "tough" -- so as to protect himself from hawkish critics at precisely the moment he needs to build support on health care reform.
So there must be constant public scrutiny -- somehow executed amidst the screaming hysteria of today's politics and media.
This will be difficult to accomplish, for we live in a country which represses, drowns out with noise historical perspective.
Ring the bell on "Obama's War."
We know that the greater the American committment of troops and treasure, the greater is the "House of Cards" that can later fall.
An American presence in Afghanistan can remain to help make future deals. There are many possible choices.
But expanding that presence into major nation-building with expanded military operations defies the lessons of history.
And will help squander the future prosperity and health of the the American people.
To be quiet now is to risk complicity in hundreds, thousands of deaths to come.
And watch America's strength and vitality sink into the rocky terrain of an Afghan wasteland.
Still, It is time for liberals and conservatives to join hands:
To tell the President that if he plans to plunge deeper into Afghanistan, his plans shall not stand.
Ring the bell on "Obama's War."
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We know that the greater the American committment of troops and treasure, the greater is the "House of Cards" that can later fall.
An American presence in Afghanistan can remain to help make future deals. There are many possible choices.
But expanding that presence into major nation-building with expanded military operations defies the lessons of history.
An appearance of long term American occupation can sustain and strengthen Afghan Pashtun/Taliban tribal and nationalist resistance.
And will help squander the future prosperity and health of the the American people.
To be quiet now is to risk complicity in hundreds, thousands of deaths to come.
And watch America's strength and vitality sink into the rocky terrain of an Afghan wasteland.
Again, it is time for liberals and conservatives to unite:
To tell the President that if he plans to plunge deeper into Afghanistan, his plans shall not stand.
Ring the bell.
Ring the bell.
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Frederic A. Moritz has studied the outbreak of war since 1956. He is the author of Predicting Unexpected Attack, based on reporting as Asia Correspondent for The Christian Science Monitor.
For a comprehensive critique of the Obama strategy, see Graham E. Fuller, former CIA Station Chief in Kabul, Obama's Policies Making Situation Worse in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
"Ring the bell that can still ring...
they're going to hear from me"
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