What will we see when the "fog of war" clears?

Battle of Antietam, September 17, 1862

"Fog of war" is a term used to describe the level of ambiguity in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations.

The term is ascribed to the Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz, who wrote:

"The great uncertainty of all data in war is a peculiar difficulty, because all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight, which in addition not infrequently -- like the effect of a fog or moonshine -- gives to things exaggerated dimensions and unnatural appearance."

The term seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding one's own capability, adversary capability and adversary intent during an engagement, operation or campaign.

With imperfect information, decisions must sometimes be made in ignorance or on hunch or speculation.

Deadlines and the press of events make it impossible to wait for certainty.

And so the fog of war makes decisions even more of a gamble...

Seeking guidance from von Clausewitz

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An entire nation can be in a fog when at war...

...if there is confusion over objectives, the intentions of the enemy, the strategy to adopt in relation to the enemy, how many resources to commit -- indeed over who is the enemy.

Such is America today -- full of debate, full of uncertainty, awaiting a President's decision, a President's evaluation of the terrain, the enemy, the strategy.

A nation full of rhetoric, a nation debating the intentions of Islam, the nature of terror...

A nation of politicians and broadcasters grandstanding to steal votes and ratings, power and profits.

The louder the language, the denser the fog.

A nation buffeted by fear, by uncertainty, by hope, and paranoia.

Yet among many people an indescribable calm.

Vast parts of the country untouched by war -- with military age "children" who never pick up a gun.

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The fog of war can cloud a President or a general's view.

Or the view of any American.

It can obscure hidden opportunities or hidden perils.

Looking out over the battlefield of America's overseas military campaigns, it is tempting to see what one wishes to see or what one fears to be the case.

To justify one's view of the battlefield, one's view of the world...with imagined shadows on the wall.

What will we see when the fog of war clears?

From "Fog of War," the Life
of Robert S. McNamara

McNamara's eleven lessons of war

1. Empathize with your enemy
2. Rationality will not save us
3. There's something beyond one's self
4. Maximize efficiency
5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war
6. Get the data
7. Belief and seeing are often both wrong
8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning
9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil
10. Never say never
11. You can't change human nature

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Let's go back to the last
Confederate attack on the Union:

Bentonville, NC, March 19-22, 1864;
A Confederate commander struggles with
the "fog of war"




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That day -- as four Rebel commands gathered in North Carolina -- General Joseph Johnston traveled to Smithfield to form the hodgepodge Army of the South.

After evacuating Wilmington in February and resisting Schofield at Kinston on March 8-10, Gen. Braxton Bragg finally had arrived at Smithfield with Maj. Gen. Robert Hoke's Division (Army of Northern Virginia)...

Hampton's cavalry was split to monitor both wings of Sherman's army. The proud remnants of the Army of Tennessee were slowly trickling into Smithfield from the west, having departed Tupelo, Mississippi, by rail in mid-January...

Others were still on the way.

As his motley units converged, Johnston waited anxiously for news.

Was the enemy moving on Raleigh or Goldsboro?

From his position at Smithfield, Johnston could swing west or southeast to block the way to either destination.

Lacking sufficient numbers for a decisive engagement, however, Johnston needed favorable ground from which to tackle one wing of the Union army while the other was beyond supporting distance. The clock was ticking...

Desperate for news, Johnston fired off inquiries to his subordinates:

"Something must be done tomorrow morning," he pushed Hardee on March 17, "and yet I have no satisfactory information."

He then queried Hampton for specifics on the enemy's position, strength, and relative distance. "[G]ive me your opinion," urged Johnston, "whether it is practicable to reach them from Smithfield on the south side of the [Neuse] river before they reach Goldsborough."

--Mark A. Moore

General Joseph Johnston

True Love trumps politics: let that be the lead story

As I recovered from a mild senior citizen bout of George Orwell 1984 pig flu, I could not help but sip the healing wines of Celtic music -- from YouTube.

A fresh new prayer came to mind:

"God protect us from the Tribes which guide us."

Cara Dillon

Streets of Derry

After the morning there comes an evening
And after the evening another day
And after a false love there comes a true love
I'd have you listen now to what I say

I swear my love is the finest young man
As fair as any the sun shines on
But how to save him, I do not know it
For he has got a sentence to be hung

As he was marching the streets of Derry
I own he marched up right manfully
Being much more like a commanding officer
Than a man to die upon the gallows tree

"What keeps my love so long in coming
Oh what detains her so long from me
Or does she think it a shame or scandal
To see me die upon the gallows tree"

He looked around and he saw her coming
And she was dressed all in woollen fine
The weary steed that my love was riding
It flew more swiftly than the wind

Come down, come down from that cruel gallows
I've got your pardon from the king
And I'll let them see that they dare not hang you
And I'll crown my love with a bunch of green

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A Gallows Tree

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When Tribes Do Prevail

"There Were Roses"

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Now it's time to dance

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Obama's "Sophie's Choice:" when media cannot see

"Ample Make this Bed," by Emily Dickinson,
from the 1982 movie, "Sophie's Choice," --
Where no choice is clean -- though one must be made

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"Ample make this bed.
Make this bed with awe;
In it wait till judgment break
Excellent and fair.

"Be its mattress straight,
Be its pillow round;
Let no sunrise' yellow noise
Interrupt this ground."

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"Obama's Choice:" Play Agressively

With a Weak Hand

After two months of researching and writing about President Obama's Afghan policy choices, I am convinced I have witnessed a "mass media" disaster.

A globally important issue has been dominated by polemicists, ideologues, and party campaigners who spin, proclaim, and argue, who scream the loudest -- with very little emphasis on illuminating the challenges of choice.

It is fair to conclude that the more one has followed the national "debate" in mass media, the less one understands.

We have witnessed a form of national media pollution.

In a strategic and political and moral trap where there may be no good or easy choices.

Indeed Afghan policy may be a kind of "Sophie's Choice."

Whomever President Obama seeks to save, many others will die.

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Very rarely have there been mass media explorations of the nuances of choice as they would be dealt with in political and military planning.

Very rarely does the mass media provide historical or cultural context -- beyond slogans and reported polemic.

Such issues are reasonably obvious to anyone who seriously researches these subjects -- but systematically obscured by mass media.

There have been exceptions in the pages of serious newspapers like The New York Times and The Washington Post, The Christian Science Monitor, and The Wall Street Journal.

PBS and National Public Radio have often tried to get below the surface -- although each is limited by the nature of its news judgement.

Sometimes this involves political slant.

Even in these relatively sophisticated outlets there has rarely been concrete indepth examination of the President's options.

American media tend not to be interested in the nuances, the dilemmas of choice.

The focus is on conflict, polemic, who are the "good guys," who are the "bad guys."

The worse offenders have been talk shows and cable news, especially FOX, MSNBC, and CNN.

Where commentators and "political strategists" repeat liberal and conservative "talking points."

Where the emphasis is on argument, on debate.

One redeeming feature in this dismal media scene is the rich variety of source material available on the internet.

True, the internet is chock full of the same opinion, hyperbole as other forms of mass media. But it also contains rich background and primary sources of the kind which are screened out of the mass media.

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As of this writing, a "hybrid policy" seems to be emerging.

U.S. troops will be increased, but a wholesale national counter-insurgency policy will be avoided. Certain key population centers will be held with mobile strikes elsewhere.

A key aim will be to avoid over-extension of limited forces -- the kind of over-extension which made American forces so vulnerable to being overrun at Wanat.

The Battle for Wanat: Has it helped shape

Obama's Decision?

The New York Times reported the basic emerging Obama strategy on October 27.

Time now to drop back -- and let the issues unfold not through the "pens" of journalists -- but through actions and events in the real world.

"Time and Tides" march to their own drummers...but it can be interesting to watch.

Here is a listing of this writer's Afghanistan blogs:

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What Will We See When the "Fog of War" Clears?

For Afghanistan, What Lessons from "The Crater?"

Obama's New Policy: Play Agressively
With a Weak Hand

Obama's Great Grim Gamble: He Holds a Weak Hand

A Digital View of Afghanistan: Obama Looks to a Hybrid Strategy

Rudyard Kipling Warns President Obama

Will Obama Follow Lord Roberts Advice: Get in Fast, Withdraw,
Rule Indirectly, with Limited Occupation?

Pick off an Occupying Army: Updating an Old Story

Following Alexander the Great to Afghanistan

Should Prez Obama Take Advice From a Russian

Left, Right, Join In: Ring the Bell on "Obama's War"

US in Afghanistan: Bearing Gifts to Other Nations

America and China: Circling the Afghan Carcass with a Bamboo Curtain Dead

"The Kiterunner" as a Guide to Afghanistan

Kris Kristofferson: let him speak for himself...

"Sadness Has Nothing To Do With Sanity"
"There's humans entrusted with guarding our gold and
humans in charge of saving our souls."

From "Sister Sinead"

Listen to his latest "Closer to the Bone"

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"God bless Obama. God bless the United States of America; And God bless the others outside of our borders." - Kris Kristofferson

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"To Pass It On"

Obama's "new policy:" play agressively a weak hand

Rolling the dice again

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President Obama will lean forward to play hard with a very weak hand.

Obama will escalate US intervention in the area, in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While the nominal sovereignty of each nation would be maintained, we will see renewed U.S. efforts to turn them in one degree or another into "client states."

That is the conclusion to be drawn from an October 26 speech before Council of Foreign Relations by John Kerry, D Mass., Chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

While Sen. Kerry does not officially speak for President Obama, he is intimately involved with the evolution of Afghanistan policy.

Below, from his speech, is the bottom line:

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The U.S. will push to shake up the central Afghan government, push to change some top officials, attempt to diffuse power more to the local level -- where American advisors both military and civilian will play a growing part.

There will be a hybrid policy of clear and hold in some areas -- but a looser presence of military strikes elsewhere.

The goal of clearing and holding all of Afghanistan is rejected.

The Administration will trim down the call of General Stanley McChrystal for up to 40,000 additional troops for Afghanistan.

For Administration plans to focus on limited parts of the country, see The New York Times, October 27:

"At the moment, the administration is looking at protecting Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunduz, Herat, Jalalabad and a few other village clusters, officials said. The first of any new troops sent to Afghanistan would be assigned to Kandahar, the Taliban’s spiritual capital, seen as a center of gravity in pushing back insurgent advances.

"But military planners are also pressing for enough troops to safeguard major agricultural areas, like the hotly contested Helmand River valley, as well as regional highways essential to the economy — tasks that would require significantly more reinforcements beyond the 21,000 deployed by Mr. Obama this year...

"Military officers said that they would maintain pressure on insurgents in remote regions by using surveillance drones and reports from people in the field to find pockets of Taliban fighters and to guide attacks, in particular by Special Operations forces."

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Major pressure on Afghan government will combine with continuing full court press on Pakistan to step up its offensive against Taliban in Waziristan.

Although Washington denies it, American aid to Pakistan will be directly or indirectly conditioned on its willingness to co-operate with the U.S. -- and break with fundamentalists in its social programs.

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In short the move is for more aggressive involvement in the affairs of both countries. The aim is to stabilize both around a pro American orientation -- and squeeze the Taliban by military pressure from both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It is clear there is already a growing anti-American backlash in both Afghanistan and Pakistan -- where the appearance of being American puppets is hardly desired.

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See this writer's analysis of the range of options open to Obama -- and the pitfalls of all of them.

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"I just Got Punked in Afghanistan"

Obama's great grim gamble: he holds a weak hand

War, it has often been said, is the greatest gamble of all.

It is time, once again, to roll the Afghan dice.

The gamble is a grim one.....

This time President Obama holds a very weak hand.

Jack of Diamonds: "I bet you I beat you next game"

Check the cost of the gamble at iCasualties.org

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One of my old time favorites.

This classic musical allegory is "The Cuckoo"

An Appalachian Montains analysis of the complex process of going to war.

"War is the greatest grim gamble of all."

In Afghanistan the United States, like Britain and the Soviet Union before it, once again prepares to roll the dice.

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Meet the "Enemy"

BBC interview, Helmand Province, 2006

The BBC interview above is a classic illustration of how the Pashtun Taliban operate, recruit, and thrive off of resentment against foreign occupiers. See David Rohde, "Held by the Taliban," NYT, Oct. 17, 2009 for an account of how occupation and bombing reinforces anti-American feeling.

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This writer has reluctantly altered his conclusions.

Lots of reflection, a journalist's perpetual research and a lifetime of study go into an altered, painful stance toward an issue involving so much human suffering.

Raised with Quaker pacifist roots, he now believes that some kind of "surge" probably will be necessary -- given the growing strength of the Taliban.

In order to prevent a quick collapse -- and to lay a foundation for whatever stage comes next.

With Taliban strength growing, a "surge" may be necessary.

Important questions will be how big a "surge" to support; how large a series of operations in how much of Afghanistan over how long a period of time?

--Even if President Obama chooses a less ambitious strategy which avoids "seize and hold" counter-insurgency operations in a large part of the country.

--If American forces are to have any leverage in protecting even a limited part of Afghanistan from the brutalities of the Taliban.

--If the U.S. is to maintain a stable base from which to launch attacks on Al Qaeda.

--If the U.S. is to solidify its presence sufficiently to seek a political deal with some of the insurgents.

--If the U.S. is to help stabilize Pakistan and keep its nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists.

--Even if the U.S. eventually withdraws to pinpoint and fight Al Qaeda from offshore.

But it is highly doubtful that the U.S. government will be able to execute a limited surge with a clear exit strategy -- amidst the complexities of both American and Afghan politics.

Some things are near certain:

A large scale, long lasting military commitment is impossible.

If the American people turn against a long, costly war, it will be only a matter of time before the U.S. position in Afghanistan will collapse.

A long war would mean deep costs for the American economy and a likely decline in this country's military, economic, and political standing in the world.

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The challenge will be to find a workable mission and strategy which promise ways of getting out in a reasonable time period even as the U.S. gets more deeply in.

If the mission requires more troops, a "surge" must flow onto the beach and then back out again.

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A small surge risks being ineffective -- or of escalating into a large one.

A large surge runs the risk of escalating the conflict, getting more deeply trapped -- and producing a deadly and costly anti-American backlash across the South Asian region.

One result could be a destabilization of Pakistan -- with a theoretically increased danger that nuclear weapons could be obtained by terrorists.

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Ahead could be another cycle of blowback -- where forces unleased by American intervention come back to strike the U.S. -- as was the case with the 9/11 attacks.

The ultimate risk in this gamble is that a new generation of anti-American terrorists will ultimately get their hands on nuclear weapons.

For testimony on the destructive effects already evident from the Obama policy see an article by Graham E. Fuller, former CIA chief in Kabul.

Also a video of an interview with Pakistani journalist Hamad Mir dealing with the impact of American drone attacks in Pakistan.

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It is time, once again, to roll the Afghan dice.

The greatest grim gamble of all.

Dance toward the future with lessons from the past

Enter Loreena McKennitt website
Night Ride Across the Caucasus
Dante's Prayer
She Moved Through The Fair
The Highwayman
The Highwayman, lyrics by Alfred Noyes

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"When in the springtime of the year.

When the trees are crowned with leaves.

When the ash and oak, and the birch and yew.
Are dressed in ribbons fair."

Follow the dance wherever it leads -- with a vision of the future and lessons from the past.

For Afghanistan: what lessons from "The Crater?"

The battle for "The Crater," from the movie
"Cold Mountain"

For the complete story, click on
When "Cold Mountain" Meets Afghanistan
A Confederate account: preparing to kill negroes

We can build the most innovative of plans, as did General Ambrose Burnside -- Rhode Island's most famous native son.

But without the power and coordination to carry them out, we can be trapped in the craters we blow open, trapped amidst the screams.

"War is the Greatest Gamble."

Burnside gambled and lost at "The Crater" in front of Petersburg, Virginia on July 30, 1864.

He pushed a plan to mine and blow up Confederate lines in front of Petersburg -- to launch an assault with well trained negro soldiers.

The plan hoped to open the way for the capture of Petersburg, an assault on Richmond -- and an end of the war.

He whose star had already fallen in failure and demotion after brilliant amphibious landings to conquer coastal North Carolina, including New Bern, in March 1862.

His men charged into the crater -- as many as 15,000 trapped in and around the hole Pennsylvania miners had blown.

Hundreds on both sides died by clubbed musket, bayonets, and rocks in less than a morning of brutal hand to hand fighting.

Some four thousand on both sides were killed, wounded, or captured.

The dead included many of the Union negroes.

"No quarter" was the Union cry.

Little did the Confederates give.

Revenge against negroes fighting for the Union was the Confederate "cry."

General Ambrose Burnside

This man from a Quaker family opened the door to racial bloodletting during the failed Union offensive at "The Crater."

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The hunger for revenge is a wonderful motivator -- but can lead to disaster when it backfires. Each side stirred the passions of its troops for race revenge. The result was a Union disaster, a merciless killing of black Federal troops.

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Today President Obama, unlike President Bush before him, is bit more cautious.

Just how big a gamble will he take?

Time, again, to roll the dice.

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I thought I heard a black bell toll
A little bird did sing
Man has no choice
When he wants every thing

We'll rise above the scarlet tide
That trickles down through the mountain
And separates the widow from the bride

Man goes beyond his own decision
Gets caught up in the mechanism
Of swindlers who act like kings
And brokers who break everything

--"The Scarlet Tide," lyrics from the movie Cold Mountain

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The ghosts from "The Crater" are not still

They have a story to tell, lessons to teach -- passed down from generation to generation.

Each generation can be trapped in its own crater. Each generation can face afresh the challenge: how to climb out, up to the "higher ground?"

What should be done in Afghanistan? Can American forces "surge" through "The Crater" they have blown open -- or are they still trapped like birds in a "turkey shoot?"

Whether to press forward in the midst of continuing fire -- or find a better way to go around.

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There is that line where "one" must sometimes decide whether to soldier on -- or withdraw to something else, desert in quest of peace high upon "Cold Mountain."

Fighting never ends -- but there is always the dream of "Cold Mountain."

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The Killing of Union Negroes Erupts
"Listen" to a Confederate Account

From an old imperialist: a warning on Afghanistan

From the shadows of costly colonial battles:
Rudyard Kipling on the "savage wars of peace"
A Master Storyteller "rings a bell" of caution

What has been, that will be;

what has been done, that will be done.

Nothing is new under the sun.

Even the thing of which we say, "See, this is new!"

has already existed in the ages that preceded us.

Ecclesiastes 1:9,10

Rudyard Kipling: His Poetry
Rudyard Kipling: Biography
Rudyard Kipling: The White Man's Burden, 1899

Rudyard Kipling: Ford O' Kabul River, Second Afghan War
Rudyard Kipling: Arithmetic of the Frontier, 1886
Rudyard Kipling: The Man Who Would Be King, 1888
(A short story on imperialism, set partly in Afghanistan, based on Josiah Harlan)
Josiah Harlan, the American Quaker who would be Afghan king, 1838

Frederic A. Moritz: More Troops to Afghanistan?

Frederic A. Moritz: Pick off an Occupying Army; an Old Story

Frederic A. Moritz: Will Obama Follow the Advice of Lord Roberts?

Disastrous British retreat to Gandamuk, First Afghan War, 1842

Victorious British March to Kandahar, Second Afghan War, 1880
Martini-Henry, the rifle which won the Second Afghan War

Edward Girardet, The Great Pretend Game

David Rohde, "Held by the Taliban," NYT, Oct. 17, 2009

(Video on growing anti-Americanism)

To PRESIDENT BARAK OBAMA -- GREETINGS, my son!

But first, Mr. President, at the suggestion of my friend Frederic A. Moritz, may I include these words:

"Be Wise and Careful, for what benefit a man if he drown in the same river as those who came before."

And now, Mr. President, below may I commend to you a favorite poem I have penned: "Ford 'Ol Kabul River."

I have chosen each word carefully, for those such as yourself.

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KIPLING'S ALLEGORY FOR BRITAIN'S

"GETTING IN OVER ITS HEAD"

Ford O' Kabul River. 1879

(River disaster of the 10th Hussars: 46 drowned)

Kabul town's by Kabul river --
Blow the bugle, draw the sword --
There I lef' my mate for ever,
Wet an' drippin' by the ford.
Ford, ford, ford o' Kabul river,
Ford o' Kabul river in the dark!
There's the river up and brimmin', an' there's 'arf a squadron swimmin'
'Cross the ford o' Kabul river in the dark....

Kabul town'll go to hell --
Blow the bugle, draw the sword --
'Fore I see him 'live an' well --
'Im the best beside the ford.
Ford, ford, ford o' Kabul river,
Ford o' Kabul river in the dark!
Gawd 'elp 'em if they blunder, for their boots'll pull 'em under,
By the ford o' Kabul river in the dark.

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KIPLING ON "ASSYMETRIC WARFARE"

Arithmetic of the Frontier, 1886
(on the Second Afghan War)

...A scrimmage in a Border Station—
A canter down some dark defile—
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail—
The Crammer's boast, the Squadron's pride,
Shot like a rabbit in a ride!

No proposition Euclid wrote,
No formulae the text-books know,
Will turn the bullet from your coat,
Or ward the tulwar's downward blow
Strike hard who cares—shoot straight who can—
The odds are on the cheaper man.

One sword-knot stolen from the camp
Will pay for all the school expenses
Of any Kurrum Valley scamp
Who knows no word of moods and tenses,
But, being blessed with perfect sight,
Picks off our messmates left and right.

With home-bred hordes the hillsides teem,
The troop-ships bring us one by one,
At vast expense of time and steam,
To slay Afridis where they run.
The "captives of our bow and spear"
Are cheap—alas! as we are dear.

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From The Naulahka:

"Now it is not good for the Christian's health to hustle the Aryan brown.

"For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;

"And the end of the fight is a tombkstone white with the name of the late deceased.

"And the epitaph drear: 'A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.'"

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So MR. PRESIDENT -- If onward you must go:

"Take up the White Man's burden--
The savage wars of peace--
Fill full the mouth of Famine,
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
(The end for others sought)
Watch sloth and heathen folly
Bring all your hope to nought."

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And MR. PRESIDENT:

"If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

"If you can dream -- and not make dreams your master;
If you can think -- and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools;

"If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

"If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings -- nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run --
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And -- which is more -- you'll be a Man, my son."

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Storytelling in the footsteps of Kipling

Above all, enjoy some music:
a very non-Afghan ballad,
"1952 Vincent Black Lightning."
Original by Richard Thompson,
British poet and storyteller

Or try a Del McCoury bluegrass version;
A recklessly hillbilly version by Reckless Kelly

Finally, try Butch Ross on dulcimer

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Britain won the Second Afghan war, but at great cost.

See a representation of Rudyard Kipling in this

video of "The Man Who Would Be King,"

a tragic allegory for Britain's involvement

in Afghanistan

The effort to follow Alexander the Great:

to be an invincible god

Joshua Harlan, American "Quaker" --

the real "man who would be king"

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Images of Afghan resistance to

British incursions, 1839 to 1919

Following Alexander the Great to Afghanistan

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These BBC segments speak for themselves.

1) Follow Alexander to Kabul and explore what he left behind.

2) Follow Alexander's military campaigns up across the Hindu Kush mountains

Here is a general account of the life of Alexander the Great. Here is a more specific account of his exploits in Afghanistan.

"After Alexander’s death, Afghanistan is divided amongst four Greek governors with their capitals being Kabul and its suburbs, Heart and Sistaan, Qandahar and Baluchistan, and Bakhter (balkh area) and ruled for the next 55 years. By 250 BC the Governors of these four regions declared their independence and established a new Greek-Bakhter government independent of mainland Greece. Roxanne pregnant with Alexander's son moves back to Macedonia. After giving birth to the heir of Alexander's kingdom, both Roxanne and Alexander IV are killed by insurgents."