Obama's "new policy:" Senator Kerry's speech

Rolling the dice again

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President Obama will lean forward to play hard with a very weak hand.

Obama will escalate US intervention in the area, in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While the nominal sovereignty of each nation would be maintained, we will see renewed U.S. efforts to turn them in one degree or another into "client states."

That is the conclusion to be drawn from an October 26 speech before Council of Foreign Relations by John Kerry, D Mass., Chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

While Sen. Kerry does not officially speak for President Obama, he is intimately involved with the evolution of Afghanistan policy.

Below, from his speech, is the bottom line:

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The U.S. will push to shake up the central Afghan government, push to change some top officials, attempt to diffuse power more to the local level -- where American advisors both military and civilian will play a growing part.

There will be a hybrid policy of clear and hold in some areas -- but a looser presence of military strikes elsewhere.

The goal of clearing and holding all of Afghanistan is rejected.

The Administration will trim down the call of General Stanley McChrystal for up to 40,000 additional troops for Afghanistan.

For Administration plans to focus on limited parts of the country, see The New York Times, October 27:

"At the moment, the administration is looking at protecting Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunduz, Herat, Jalalabad and a few other village clusters, officials said. The first of any new troops sent to Afghanistan would be assigned to Kandahar, the Taliban’s spiritual capital, seen as a center of gravity in pushing back insurgent advances.

"But military planners are also pressing for enough troops to safeguard major agricultural areas, like the hotly contested Helmand River valley, as well as regional highways essential to the economy — tasks that would require significantly more reinforcements beyond the 21,000 deployed by Mr. Obama this year...

"Military officers said that they would maintain pressure on insurgents in remote regions by using surveillance drones and reports from people in the field to find pockets of Taliban fighters and to guide attacks, in particular by Special Operations forces."

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Major pressure on Afghan government will combine with continuing full court press on Pakistan to step up its offensive against Taliban in Waziristan.

Although Washington denies it, American aid to Pakistan will be directly or indirectly conditioned on its willingness to co-operate with the U.S. -- and break with fundamentalists in its social programs.

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In short the move is for more aggressive involvement in the affairs of both countries. The aim is to stabilize both around a pro American orientation -- and squeeze the Taliban by military pressure from both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It is clear there is already a growing anti-American backlash in both Afghanistan and Pakistan -- where the appearance of being American puppets is hardly desired.

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See this writer's analysis of the range of options open to Obama -- and the pitfalls of all of them.

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"I just Got Punked in Afghanistan"

Obama's great grim gamble: he holds a weak hand

War, it has often been said, is the greatest gamble of all.

It is time, once again, to roll the Afghan dice.

The gamble is a grim one.....

This time President Obama holds a very weak hand.

Jack of Diamonds: "I bet you I beat you next game"

Check the cost of the gamble at iCasualties.org

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One of my old time favorites.

This classic musical allegory is "The Cuckoo"

An Appalachian Montains analysis of the complex process of going to war.

"War is the greatest grim gamble of all."

In Afghanistan the United States, like Britain and the Soviet Union before it, once again prepares to roll the dice.

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Meet the "Enemy"

Pashtun Taliban operate, recruit, and thrive off of resentment against foreign occupiers. See David Rohde, "Held by the Taliban," NYT, Oct. 17, 2009 for an account of how occupation and bombing reinforces anti-American feeling.

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This writer has reluctantly altered his conclusions.

Lots of reflection, a journalist's perpetual research and a lifetime of study go into an altered, painful stance toward an issue involving so much human suffering.

Raised with Quaker pacifist roots, he now believes that some kind of "surge" probably will be necessary -- given the growing strength of the Taliban.

In order to prevent a quick collapse -- and to lay a foundation for whatever stage comes next.

With Taliban strength growing, a "surge" may be necessary.

Important questions will be how big a "surge" to support; how large a series of operations in how much of Afghanistan over how long a period of time?

--Even if President Obama chooses a less ambitious strategy which avoids "seize and hold" counter-insurgency operations in a large part of the country.

--If American forces are to have any leverage in protecting even a limited part of Afghanistan from the brutalities of the Taliban.

--If the U.S. is to maintain a stable base from which to launch attacks on Al Qaeda.

--If the U.S. is to solidify its presence sufficiently to seek a political deal with some of the insurgents.

--If the U.S. is to help stabilize Pakistan and keep its nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists.

--Even if the U.S. eventually withdraws to pinpoint and fight Al Qaeda from offshore.

But it is highly doubtful that the U.S. government will be able to execute a limited surge with a clear exit strategy -- amidst the complexities of both American and Afghan politics.

Some things are near certain:

A large scale, long lasting military commitment is impossible.

If the American people turn against a long, costly war, it will be only a matter of time before the U.S. position in Afghanistan will collapse.

A long war would mean deep costs for the American economy and a likely decline in this country's military, economic, and political standing in the world.

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The challenge will be to find a workable mission and strategy which promise ways of getting out in a reasonable time period even as the U.S. gets more deeply in.

If the mission requires more troops, a "surge" must flow onto the beach and then back out again.

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A small surge risks being ineffective -- or of escalating into a large one.

A large surge runs the risk of escalating the conflict, getting more deeply trapped -- and producing a deadly and costly anti-American backlash across the South Asian region.

One result could be a destabilization of Pakistan -- with a theoretically increased danger that nuclear weapons could be obtained by terrorists.

Indeed a number of veterans conclude that one great danger is that the American military will again be put in an impossible position: unreachable goals with limited resources.

As one veteran puts it, "to be set up agains for defeat as we were in Vietnam because no sitting President wants to be seen as losing."

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Ahead could be another cycle of blowback -- where forces unleased by American intervention come back to strike the U.S. -- as was the case with the 9/11 attacks.

The ultimate risk in this gamble is that a new generation of anti-American terrorists will ultimately get their hands on nuclear weapons.

For testimony on the destructive effects already evident from the Obama policy see an article by Graham E. Fuller, former CIA chief in Kabul.

Also a video of an interview with Pakistani journalist Hamad Mir dealing with the impact of American drone attacks in Pakistan.

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It is time, once again, to roll the Afghan dice.

The greatest grim gamble of all.

Dance toward the future with lessons from the past

Enter Loreena McKennitt website
Night Ride Across the Caucasus
Dante's Prayer
She Moved Through The Fair
The Highwayman
The Highwayman, lyrics by Alfred Noyes

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"When in the springtime of the year.

When the trees are crowned with leaves.

When the ash and oak, and the birch and yew.
Are dressed in ribbons fair."

Follow the dance wherever it leads -- with a vision of the future and lessons from the past.

For Afghanistan: what lessons from "The Crater?"

From an old imperialist: a warning on Afghanistan

From the shadows of costly colonial battles:
Rudyard Kipling on the "savage wars of peace"
A Master Storyteller "rings a bell" of caution

What has been, that will be;

what has been done, that will be done.

Nothing is new under the sun.

Even the thing of which we say, "See, this is new!"

has already existed in the ages that preceded us.

Ecclesiastes 1:9,10

Rudyard Kipling: His Poetry
Rudyard Kipling: Biography
Rudyard Kipling: The White Man's Burden, 1899

Rudyard Kipling: Ford O' Kabul River, Second Afghan War
Rudyard Kipling: Arithmetic of the Frontier, 1886
Rudyard Kipling: The Man Who Would Be King, 1888
(A short story on imperialism, set partly in Afghanistan, based on Josiah Harlan)
Josiah Harlan, the American Quaker who would be Afghan king, 1838

Frederic A. Moritz: More Troops to Afghanistan?

Frederic A. Moritz: Pick off an Occupying Army; an Old Story

Frederic A. Moritz: Will Obama Follow the Advice of Lord Roberts?

Disastrous British retreat to Gandamuk, First Afghan War, 1842

Victorious British March to Kandahar, Second Afghan War, 1880
Martini-Henry, the rifle which won the Second Afghan War

Edward Girardet, The Great Pretend Game

David Rohde, "Held by the Taliban," NYT, Oct. 17, 2009

(Video on growing anti-Americanism)

To PRESIDENT BARAK OBAMA -- GREETINGS, my son!

But first, Mr. President, at the suggestion of my friend Frederic A. Moritz, may I include these words:

"Be Wise and Careful, for what benefit a man if he drown in the same river as those who came before."

And now, Mr. President, below may I commend to you a favorite poem I have penned: "Ford 'Ol Kabul River."

I have chosen each word carefully, for those such as yourself.

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KIPLING'S ALLEGORY FOR BRITAIN'S

"GETTING IN OVER ITS HEAD"

Ford O' Kabul River. 1879

(River disaster of the 10th Hussars: 46 drowned)

Kabul town's by Kabul river --
Blow the bugle, draw the sword --
There I lef' my mate for ever,
Wet an' drippin' by the ford.
Ford, ford, ford o' Kabul river,
Ford o' Kabul river in the dark!
There's the river up and brimmin', an' there's 'arf a squadron swimmin'
'Cross the ford o' Kabul river in the dark....

Kabul town'll go to hell --
Blow the bugle, draw the sword --
'Fore I see him 'live an' well --
'Im the best beside the ford.
Ford, ford, ford o' Kabul river,
Ford o' Kabul river in the dark!
Gawd 'elp 'em if they blunder, for their boots'll pull 'em under,
By the ford o' Kabul river in the dark.

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KIPLING ON "ASSYMETRIC WARFARE"

Arithmetic of the Frontier, 1886
(on the Second Afghan War)

...A scrimmage in a Border Station—
A canter down some dark defile—
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail—
The Crammer's boast, the Squadron's pride,
Shot like a rabbit in a ride!

No proposition Euclid wrote,
No formulae the text-books know,
Will turn the bullet from your coat,
Or ward the tulwar's downward blow
Strike hard who cares—shoot straight who can—
The odds are on the cheaper man.

One sword-knot stolen from the camp
Will pay for all the school expenses
Of any Kurrum Valley scamp
Who knows no word of moods and tenses,
But, being blessed with perfect sight,
Picks off our messmates left and right.

With home-bred hordes the hillsides teem,
The troop-ships bring us one by one,
At vast expense of time and steam,
To slay Afridis where they run.
The "captives of our bow and spear"
Are cheap—alas! as we are dear.

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From The Naulahka:

"Now it is not good for the Christian's health to hustle the Aryan brown.

"For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;

"And the end of the fight is a tombkstone white with the name of the late deceased.

"And the epitaph drear: 'A Fool lies here who tried to hustle the East.'"

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So MR. PRESIDENT -- If onward you must go:

"Take up the White Man's burden--
The savage wars of peace--
Fill full the mouth of Famine,
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
(The end for others sought)
Watch sloth and heathen folly
Bring all your hope to nought."

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And MR. PRESIDENT:

"If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

"If you can dream -- and not make dreams your master;
If you can think -- and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools;

"If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

"If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings -- nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run --
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And -- which is more -- you'll be a Man, my son."

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Britain won the Second Afghan war, but at great cost.

See a representation of Rudyard Kipling in this

video of "The Man Who Would Be King,"

a tragic allegory for Britain's involvement

in Afghanistan

Joshua Harlan, American "Quaker" --

the real "man who would be king"

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Images of Afghan resistance to

British incursions, 1839 to 1919

Following Alexander the Great to Afghanistan

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These BBC segments speak for themselves.

1) Follow Alexander to Kabul and explore what he left behind.

2) Follow Alexander's military campaigns up across the Hindu Kush mountains

Here is a general account of the life of Alexander the Great. Here is a more specific account of his exploits in Afghanistan.

"After Alexander’s death, Afghanistan is divided amongst four Greek governors with their capitals being Kabul and its suburbs, Heart and Sistaan, Qandahar and Baluchistan, and Bakhter (balkh area) and ruled for the next 55 years. By 250 BC the Governors of these four regions declared their independence and established a new Greek-Bakhter government independent of mainland Greece. Roxanne pregnant with Alexander's son moves back to Macedonia. After giving birth to the heir of Alexander's kingdom, both Roxanne and Alexander IV are killed by insurgents."

Should Prez Obama take advice from a Russian?

Russian commentator urges US co-operation
with Russia to stabilize Afghanistan

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Russian military analyst: US could "win"
because of China and Russia
-- but at tremendous economic cost

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How many times have "we" been warned about the dangers of repeating the mistakes the Soviet Union made in its diasastrous 1980's occupation of Afghanistan?

One Russian military analyst, not the one featured above, tells us the Soviet strategy might today work for the United States -- but at tremendous economic cost.

The Soviet Union, he reminds us, was opposed by both the United States and China.

Today, he maintains, neither China nor Russia are opposing the United States.

The United States, unlike the Soviet Union in the 1980's, has the co-operation of Pakistan.

Still, he cautions, any effort to transform Afghanistan into a Central Asian Valhalla could take a decade and cost far beyond what any nation is likely to afford.

This broadcast was made in February 2009, when President Obama had just beefed up troop strength in Afghanistan.

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