Saturday, December 01, 2007

Politicians: careful when you reset that clock!

Despite all the mutual saber rattling between the U.S. and Iran, don't let the politicians and pundits scare you about a world war erupting between proud Iranians and arrogant Americans.

So many modern confrontations take thirty years to heal. Peace could break out around 2010.

The Korean War, beginning in 1950. did not formally end until the United State and China established diplomatic relations in January 1979.

The Vietnam War, also born in the Fifties, but taking off in open military confrontation betwen the US and North Vietnam in 1965, did not really end until formal military and intelligence exchanges in 2005. The seeds of accomodation were apparent at least ten years earlier.

The American Iranian "proxy war," beginning with the taking of American hostages in November, 1979, should run out in about 2010 -- unless trigger happy politicians on both sides fail to read this blog -- and take military action to set the thirty year clock back to "year one."

True, some conflicts stretch longer. The "Cold War" between the United States and the Soviet Union stretched more than 40 years from 1948 to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. So the Iranian American "proxy war" could last as far into the future as 2020.

All depends on how many times politicians on both sides set back the clock.

One trick to managing these conflicts is patience and balance -- so that after thirty years the ticking alarm clock awakens us comfortably to the morning sun.

A few bad dreams are natural. Rabble rousing, fear mongering, provocation for domestic political advantage, saber rattling, mutual vilification. For politicians of many nations these are as normal as "apple pie."

But they could get out of hand.
If the politicians are not careful, they could set the clock back to "year one."

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