CBS' Lara Logan (above) reports on growing military challenges
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U.S. Marines (above) pursue an elusive Taliban
We can expect several countries to, at least privately, welcome a growing U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan.
For some golden gifts may lie ahead.
Partly because escalation may help keep Islamic extremism from spilling into other countries.
Partly because escalation may help contain American "hegemony," unilateralism -- if the United States gets bogged down, "bled," overextended, "trapped" in Afghanistan.
Indeed the more "overstretched" the U.S. becomes, the more it could be forced to rely on co-operation with other nations -- and the less on unilateral supremacy.
Partly because escalation may help keep Islamic extremism from spilling into other countries.
Partly because escalation may help contain American "hegemony," unilateralism -- if the United States gets bogged down, "bled," overextended, "trapped" in Afghanistan.
Indeed the more "overstretched" the U.S. becomes, the more it could be forced to rely on co-operation with other nations -- and the less on unilateral supremacy.
Each nation which potentially benefits has the long term objectives described below. Whether American escalation actually brings such results remains to be seen.
There can be a downside if American pressure in Afghanistan and on Pakistan encourages Islamic extremism to destabilize Pakistan.
Growing fundamentalism in Pakistan could undermine an American/Pakistani alliance -- and even cast a threatening shadow over Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal.
There can be a downside if American pressure in Afghanistan and on Pakistan encourages Islamic extremism to destabilize Pakistan.
Growing fundamentalism in Pakistan could undermine an American/Pakistani alliance -- and even cast a threatening shadow over Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal.
Let's take a look at some possibilities:
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1) In general, as the U.S. Goliath extends itself in another costly war, it will need to be extra sensitive to the needs and requests of a variety of nations around the world.
European countries may gain increased leverage over the U.S. as American military forces are stretched. The U.S. may need to make concessions on a variety of issues to secure allied support on military transportation and basing.
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2) If Islamic jihadists flock to Afghanistan to defeat the U.S. there, that could mean fewer guerrilla and terrorist attacks in other parts of the world. With the U.S. largely footing the bill for battling the extremists in Afghanistan.
Jihadists flocked to Afghanistan to fight the Soviet Union in the 1980's. They flocked to Iraq to fight the U.S. after the American invasion. Now they may flock back to Afghanistan.
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3) Anti-American forces around the world, including Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Kim Jong-il in North Korea, can welcome stepped up American fighting in Afghanistan. They can take comfort in the reduced capacity of the U.S. to intervene in other parts of the world.
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4) China may benefit from seeing a militarily extended U.S. less able to project power into the Pacific in support of American interests such as defending Taiwan.
China would also benefit if stepped up American action against the Taliban reduces the likelihood Islamic extremists can help Islamic separatists in China's Xinjiang province.
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5) Russia could also benefit because the U.S. would be less likely to actively oppose Russian actions against rebellious nations such as Georgia and the Ukraine.
The U.S. may even need Russian cooperation against the Taliban. Hence the possibility of a less provocative policy toward the Kremlin, with less emphasis on tying former Soviet satellites into Western political and military alliances.
Russia also may benefit because U.S. action against Islamic extremists in Afghanistan could limit a spillover of Islamic extremism into Russia or other states on the Russian border.
Russia also may benefit because U.S. action against Islamic extremists in Afghanistan could limit a spillover of Islamic extremism into Russia or other states on the Russian border.
The Russians cannot be very happy about an American presence in Afghanistan so close to their borders.
But they can take comfort since the U.S. intervention keeps Americans tied down and "bleeding" -- much as the Americans kept the Russian occupation in Afghanistan "bleeding" in the 1980's.
Putin will be happy if American power declines.
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6) Iran may benefit because a larger Afghan war may leave the U.S. less free to commit attention and forces to contain Iran's efforts to build nuclear weapons.
U.S. efforts to secure international support in Afghanistan may limit its leverage to secure international support against Iran.
Washington may need to work extra hard to avoid war with Iran if it is to succeed in Åfghanistan. The Americans may be more inclined toward limited accomodation with Iran if that helps American operations in Afghanistan.
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7) Iraq may benefit if it feels greater freedom to set its own policies even when opposed by Washington. This could include closer bonds with Iran. Fewer U.S. forces in Iraq as deployments shift to Afghanistan will mean less American influence in Baghdad.
An American effort to secure a friendly allied client state in Afghanistan may thus loosen the U.S. grip on its newly created client state in Iraq.
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8) India can welcome stepped up fighting between Pakistan and Taliban, as increased US operations in Afghanistan drive more Taliban across the border into Pakistan.
Fewer Pakistan forces will be available to counter India if Pakistan is forced to deploy more troops against the Taliban in Pakistan.
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